Before we start with a breakdown of all the positions, there are some tidbits to consider before your fantasy draft. For one, it helps to keep any advice in the position breakdown in perspective. All this means is that while the players mentioned should outperform their average draft position, they probably will not outperform the number one player taken at their position.
So for instance, when I say that I like Derek Carr, I do not mean I like him over Cam Newton. Having said that, let’s move on to the position breakdowns.
*Note ADP based on ESPN standard scoring
Matthew Stafford (16th QB off the board)– Stafford is one of my favorite picks to outperform his ADP. Over the last eight games of the year, Stafford scored more than twenty fantasy points in every single one of those games. He even scored twenty-five or more in half of them. Stafford is currently the 16h quarterback off the board in ESPN standard leagues. Yet, in the final eight games of last year, Matthew Stafford was one of the top QB’s in the entire league.
Before anyone tries to argue that without Calvin Johnson he has no chance, consider that in the same stretch Johnson scored ten points or less in five of those games. Also, consider the new weapon that Stafford has in Marvin Jones. Jones was brought in to play second fiddle to Golden Tate, but thus far in the preseason he has looked like Matthew Stafford’s number one option.
The final reason that Stafford looks so great is that his shift in play came with the shift to Jim Bob Cooter as offensive coordinator. Cooter is still in Detroit this year, and Stafford has had a whole offseason to get even more comfortable in this system.
- Tyrod Taylor 12th QB
- Jameis Winston 20th QB
- Robert Griffin III 25th QB
Jeremy Hill (19th RB)– Hill was a product of great touchdown production last year. If you remember correctly, Hill burst onto the scene like a madman his rookie year. He ran for over 1,100 yards, and that was without starting until week nine. Last year Hill only managed a little under 800 yards but was carried by eleven touchdowns.
This preseason, though, Hill has looked like his rookie self. His explosiveness appears to be back, and he seems to be running with a purpose. If he can keep his touchdown total in the same ballpark and add another fifteen to twenty yards a game he will look like a top five back again. This is a great offense to buy into, especially with their defense being good enough to help running the ball be easier since they won’t be chasing points as often.
- Rashad Jennings 30th RB
- Charles Sims 41st RB
- Melvin Gordon 25th RB
Michael Floyd (29th WR)– Floyd is one of my favorite picks to outperform his ADP for several reasons. For one, there is no better motivator than money and Floyd is in a contract year. On top of that, the only thing holding Floyd back is a talented receiving core that takes targets away from each other. John Brown has been out virtually the entire preseason with concussion-like symptoms, thus leaving an even greater opportunity for Floyd.
In Floyd’s last 11 games of the season, he scored at least 10 points in seven of them. That is without playing in one and leaving early in another. Floyd was also dealing with injuries at the beginning of last year, explaining his slow start. Basically, when Floyd is healthy he is a number two receiver with number one upside if he ever hits his true potential. In Bruce Arians air raid offense and with Carson Palmer’s skill set, Floyd could be making fantasy owners very happy come regular season.
- Stefon Diggs 41st WR
- Devante Parker 30th WR
- Tyler Boyd 63rd WR
Zach Ertz (9th TE)– Tight end is a little thin so it is hard to find a sleeper, but Ertz is primed for a breakout season. For one, he has a great rapport with Sam Bradford. Ertz is another player that finished very strong on the year. He had 35 receptions in the last four games, going for more than 10 points in all but one. It is important to note that the one game he did not get 10 fantasy points he had 98 yards, thus two yards short of getting 10 points in all of those last four games.
Tight ends are typically touchdown dependent, so it is even more impressive that Ertz only had one touchdown in this consistent stretch. If Bradford and Ertz can pick up where they left off, this tight end will be one of the revelations of the 2016 fantasy season.
- Charles Clay 20th TE
- Zach Miller 15th TE
- Jared Cook 16th TE